Metals and Miners are bouncing as the dollar finishes what appears to be a small inverse head and shoulder bottoming pattern. If our analysis is correct, the rebound in precious metals should end next week. A daily close above 97.50 in the US Dollar will establish a breakout. A breakout in the dollar should […]
Continue Reading →Gold and Silver formed weekly swing highs, and prices should be working their way down into the 6-Month low. The bull market breakouts in 1986 and 2002 are similar to the current setup. If the correlation advances, we should see gold break above the long-term trendline later this year, confirming a bull market. Metals […]
Continue Reading →The Dollar sold off, and metals rallied after Friday’s weak employment numbers. The April and March data was revised lower, adding fuel to gold’s rebound. Oddly, the softer than expected economic data didn’t affect the odds for a June rate hike which remain at 94.6%. The steadfast underperformance in miners contradicts the persistent rally […]
Continue Reading →Our outlook for another decline in precious metals and miners will likely be confirmed or rejected next week. The minutes from the May 3rd FED meeting will be released Wednesday at 2:00 PM. From that, we can calculate the likelihood of a June rate hike (currently at 78.5%). On May 25th, OPEC will attempt […]
Continue Reading →Gold prices are moving down into their third daily cycle low. Prices have met the minimum requirements for a cycle bottom, but the structure looks incomplete. Breaking below $1,260 next week should lead to another wave of selling. Miners have dropped significantly from their April highs. Prices are oversold on a short-term basis, but […]
Continue Reading →There were subtle signs of topping on Thursday as Gold and Silver both formed Doji’s (cross-like formations). This candlestick pattern sometimes appears near cycle inflection points. GDX rallied to the 200-day MA and subsequent BreakPoint. However, prices failed to close above these critical levels. The March rally has reached the maximum retracement level for […]
Continue Reading →This report will cover our medium-term outlook for precious metals as well as gold’s longer-term forecast. Our analysis suggests Metals and Miners probably topped last Friday. If correct, prices should drop for the rest of April and into May. We will monitor the decline for momentum, and strength of trend. If prices move powerfully […]
Continue Reading →Silver made a new high on Friday, but gold is yet to confirm that move. Gold and Miners need to exceed Wednesday’s highs to continue this rally. If prices fail to print fresh highs next week, they risk rolling over into a broader correction. I’d use Friday’s lows or your breakeven point (if you […]
Continue Reading →My timing window for a cycle low was wildly unsuccessful; we are now faced with two scenarios. Scenario 1- Metals and Miners put in abnormally shallow cycle lows January 27th, and we are 5-days into a new cycle. Scenario 2- This cycle is expanding due to continued dollar weakness, and the correction is still […]
Continue Reading →Everything seems to be on track, and precious metals and miners should reach a tradable low next week. The only fly in the ointment is silver. A bullish engulfing pattern formed on Friday when prices rallied back above $17.00. However, volume was modest, so I think it was just temporary short covering. Miners closed […]
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