Miners filled their gaps and reversed bullishly on good volume. I entered the final positions in JNUG and USLV this morning. My core position is fully established, and I’m overweight silver and junior miners.
Today’s price action was encouraging. We are anticipating an upward bias into the first week of February. If the dollar continues its breakdown, wit’s possible to see gold reach $1,375-$1,400 within the next 2-weeks. A daily close above $1,345 will bolster our early February price projections.
If prices find the short-term bullish targets, I’ll consider taking profit on half of the JNUG/USLV positions anticipating a pullback into a daily cycle low. I’ll attempt to reenter when prices approach a bottom.
-US DOLLAR- We are 14-days into this cycle, and we should see another 10-trading days or so of weakness before the next bounce.
-GOLD- Prices are maintaining the 10-day EMA with an upward bias. We could see a little more consolidation, but the odds favor another rally into the first week of February before this cycle tops. From there, we expect a correction into a daily cycle low. If the dollar breaks sharply lower, we could see $1,375-$1,400.
-SILVER- Prices need to close above $17.17 to kindle a rally to $18.30+ to complete this daily cycle.
-GDX- Prices filled the gap and then reversed sharply. I entered the last tranche in miners. If gold rallies to $1,375-$1,400, GDX could reach $26.00-$26.75 before this cycle tops in early February.
-GDXJ- Juniors filled the gap and reversed nicely with good volume. A sharp run into February could reach $38.50-$39.75.
-JNUG- Entered final tranche at $17.90.
-USLV- Entered final tranche at $11.45.
-SPY- The market is running away, and there are no signs of topping.
-WTIC- Oil is overdue for an intermediate cycle top, and I’ve been stopped out twice trying to pick it. Just because an asset should correct…doesn’t mean it will. This is an excellent example of why it’s essential to have, and keep, a core position in a bull market. Prices will run much higher and longer than anyone expects. Nevertheless, I revisited the cycles to see where I went wrong. Consequently, I found that tops seem to be forming every 40-days +/- 1-day. Today was the 39th day. A reversal day tomorrow or Thursday could finally mark a top.
-SCO- I was stopped out for another loss (3%). Attempting a countertrend trade in a bull market is ill-advised. However, I felt the potential 20%-30% gain was worth a small position.
Have a wonderful evening.