Metals and Miners should be close to reaching an interim daily cycle low, likely this week. How prices react out of that low will establish the near-term outlook (next 3-Months).
Miners look particularly close to bottoming. I will use any close above the previous day’s high as a short-term buy signal (for nimble traders). Remember, the chances of prices exceeding their BreakPoints is only about 20%, so trade accordingly. Once a low is established in metals and miners I’ll highlight potential rebound targets.
I entered partial short positions in crude oil today, anticipating a decline into May. If prices breakdown I’ll add to my position. I placed a stop just above today’s high at $53.85.
-US DOLLAR- The dollar continues to hold the 10-day EMA. I still believe prices could reach 110-112, or better in 2017 before making a multi-year top. Prices closing above 104 would suggest the final move higher is underway.
-GOLD- Prices closed below the 50-day EMA and support at $1,220. However, we could see a daily cycle low sometime this week. I will be on the lookout for a swing low to mark the daily cycle bottom.
LINE IN THE SAND: Closing below $1,179 will confirm a 6-month cycle top and produce lower prices.
-SILVER- Prices closed below the trendline and the 50-day EMA. Next level of support arrives at $17.30.
LINE IN THE SAND: Closing below $16.60 will confirm a 6-Month cycle top and deliver lower prices.
-XAU- The XAU may come down a smidge further to close the open price gap before bottoming.
-HUI- The HUI also has an open price gap that may get tagged before an interim low is struck. Closing above today’s high (187.85) should signal a bottom.
-GDX- We are getting closer to an interim low. A close above today’s high ($21.80) should mark a daily cycle low. If prices open lower tomorrow morning and then rally sharply, we could see a bottom similar to last August.
-GDXJ- A close above today’s high should mark the daily cycle low. Initial resistance arrives at $38.00 for the rebound.
-SPY- Prices finished at the 10-day EMA while closing the open price gap from last week. MACD (bottom) is beginning to crossover however it would take consecutive closes below the 20-day EMA to confirm an interim top.
-WTIC- I entered partial short positions in crude today anticipating a breakdown later this week. Closing below $52.54 would be the initial signs of a decline. MFI (top) breaking the trendline will confirm a top. If established, I expect lower prices into May.
I will watch tomorrow’s open. If Miners begin to show signs of bottoming, I’ll update members. The rebound in miners may only last 1-2 weeks before rolling over.