Gold bounced to $1342 and pushed me to the edge of my comfort zone. Prices reversed Wednesday and exposed a potential clue. I don’t use Elliott Wave analysis often, but I do find specific fractal techniques beneficial. Applying this method, I see the potential for an A = C measured move in gold and silver (see charts).
Unfotutnualy, miners are much more difficult to discern. Sometimes they diverge and bottom before gold. Other times, accelerated selling turns into a panic and prices collapse. Consequently, targets range from just a little lower to significantly lower. The price action tomorrow and next week will narrow our focus.
The odds are back in our favor and prices should continue lower for another week or two. Tomorrow’s employment report will set the tone for the day. I’ll post an update in the AM.
-US DOLLAR- Prices are trying to recapture the 10-day EMA. The MFI is holding trend, so another effort to reach the red trendline remains feasible. A daily close above 90.50 would support this option.
-GOLD- Prices tested but failed to recapture the pivot at $1342.90, and a swing high formed today. The structure could evolve into an A = C measured move targeting approximately $1280. To commission this outlook, prices must to close below $1303 and then take out the 200-day MA.
-SILVER- I see an A =C potential target in silver also targeting between $15.40 – $15.60. Closing below $16.13 would endorse.
-GDX- Prices closed below the Tuesday gap on Wednesday. Miners should work their way lower over the next week or two. I won’t be able to estimate targets until I see how prices behave at the $20.72 – $21.10 support level (see next chart).
-GDX SUPPORT- Prices have bottomed between $20.72 – $21.10 six times over the last 12-Months. Breaking below this level could trigger multiple stops and generate a washout move to $18.50. A sizeable gap down/through the $20.70 level would support this view.
-GDXJ- Juniors also closed their gap yesterday. Prices should work their way down over the next week or two. Closing below $31.00 should initiate the next wave of selling. If $29.00 doesn’t hold, then prices will likely test the $27.36 low before bottoming.
-XAU- Since May prices have formed short-term tops/bottoms between the 4th and 10th of every month. And the cycle has turned every 20-24 trading days. It’s been 18-days since the previous low, so we are getting close to the timing window. I’m considering the potential for a dual fulfillment. Meaning, prices may have formed a short-term top on March 6th but could also bottom next week between the 12th and 16th maintaining both models. Breaking sharply below 75.00 could trigger a retest of the 70.00 – 72.00 support zone stimulating the lower prices objectives for GDX and GDXJ.
-JNUG- Closing below $12.00 should lead to another round of selling. Picking a target is next to impossible. However, worst case scenario and GDXJ tests the $27.36 low, JNUG could see $7.75 – $8.25. Not a prediction, just a possibility if miners washout before the Fed meeting.
-USLV- Breaking and closing below the trendline would target $8.30 – $9.00 in USLV.
-SPY- Tomorrow is the 9-year anniversary of the 2009 bear market low. If prices are going to rollover, they may do so after tomorrows employment report. Otherwise, stocks need to close above the 278.92 high for additional gains.
-WTIC- Prices are slowly rolling over. Breaking the $58.20 low within the next week or so could setup a potential bottom around March 22nd +/- (2-days).
Have a wonderful evening.