I believe tomorrow will be a decisive day and much hinges on Fed chairman Powell’s 10:00 AM speech. President Trump has hinted that he wants the Fed to back off on increasing rates. I doubt they will listen, but you never know.

Like I said, a September rate hike is already baked in. Everyone is now looking to December. Currently, a December rate hike carries a 65.3% probability. That number will change after tomorrows speech – which way I’m not sure.

Any hint of weakness in the economy (perhaps housing) or a pause in the rate hiking cycle could give gold the boost it needs. Whereas, hawkish comments supporting a December increase would probably send metals and miners to new lows.


-US DOLLAR- After several consecutive down days, the dollar is bouncing – not unusual. Nevertheless, I think the cycle peaked, and prices should extend lower into early September. Prices may backtest the upper boundary around 95.75 before turning back down.

-GOLD- Prices formed a swing high after testing the 10-day EMA. If the Dollar peaked as I suspect, gold should turn back higher in a day or two. Progressive daily closes below $1180 would be negative and support another bout of selling.

-SILVER- Prices tagged the 10-day EMA and turned lower. The overall trend remains bearish. Silver hasn’t formed a legitimate swing low since June 22nd. Progressive closes below $14.31 would support a retest of the $13.65 low set back in 2015. To establish a trend change, prices must find support, rally and close above $14.88.

-GDX- Miners gapped slightly lower at the open and continued to selloff throughout the day…not bullish behavior. Closing below last week’s $18.15 low would prompt more selling. To invalidate the bearish sentiment, prices need to reverse and close above $19.08 in the coming days.

-GDXJ- Juniors need to reverse and close above $28.24 in the coming days to prevent another selloff.

-JNUG- Prices need to close above $8.45 to support an advance to the above gap levels. At this point, it may take dovish sentiment out of Jackson Hole to prevent another selloff.

-USLV- Prices look positioned for new lows unless something changes quickly.

-WTIC- It looks like prices are attempting another rally. A few more up days will support a run to the $72.00 – $73.00 zone. That could set up a potential head and shoulder topping pattern.

I’ll update before the open and after the 10:00 AM speech.

Have a great night.