With today’s price action I can say with about 90% confidence that gold peaked October 26th at $1246. The question now is how far will prices drop and when can we expect the next tradable bottom.

Over the last 6-years, gold peaked in October (sometimes early November) and bottomed in December (once in November). From the October peak to the December lows the average loss was 10%. The greatest being 14% with the least 5.4%. With the average decline (10%) as our guide, it’s possible to see prices near $1122 in December. Most likely between December 14th and January 4th. The minimum target would suggest $1179 with a maximum price objective of $1072.

We should be able to narrow our focus a week or two after the elections.