We are getting some downside price action in metals and miners today. I’m pretty confident this is the beginning of the November decline that should lead to a December bottom. At the moment, I do not see the sharp down swing in miners I felt was possible. That may change later today or on Monday. But for now, they are holding up better than I envisioned. Not sure what that means, perhaps gold needs to drop below $1200 before investors panic.
Gold is below the $1213.40 low, and the cycle trendline resides around $1200. Below that and there’s a good chance we see new lows in December.
Silver is below the cycle trendline. Next, we need to see how prices respond around $14.00. The 2015 low was $13.62. I imagine we will test or break that level before prices find a bottom.
-GDX- Miners are down, but I don’t see evidence of a collapse. Long red candles advise momentum selling (like October 25th). It may come later today or perhaps Monday. But if it’s not here by Tuesday, then we will probably see stuck with more sideways price action.
-GDXJ- I’d like to see some downside follow-through in juniors to support my bull trap theory.
I’ll update again this afternoon.