Great question from a member below.
Good morning,
I just checked various gold mine stocks (Barrick, Kinross, Harmony, Anglo Ashanti, First Majestic) and at the end GDX.
To me, it looks pretty much like the start in 2016. This seems to be the breakout. I am aware that gold is close to the big 1300 USD hurdle, but miners sneak away. Silver formed a W-bottom and breaks out. Did you reconsider your last weekend editions point of view?
I wanted to answer in a public manner because I’m sure he’s not the only one. Look at the charts. I think you’ll see a similar theme.
-ABX- Down Channel Trend: No confirmed breakout until above $15.50. Negative RSI (14) divergence into last top.
-AG- At the mid-point of a larger downward sloping channel. About to test the 200-day MA which has stopped several rallies.
-AU- Powerful, impulsive move off the August $7.07 low. A trending move and a bullish thrust. A clear breakout above the trend channel. Coming into resistance now between $13.50 – $14.60. RSI (14) declining from twice overbought status.
So…is AU leading a new bull market or is this just a company-specific story? If the other charts breakout – then I think we have a renewed gold bull market.
-HMY- Same downward sloping trend channel. Prices at mid-point and 200-day MA.
-KGC-Wide and volatile downtrend channel. At 200-day MA resistance. RSI (14) coming out of overbought conditions.
That’s 5-charts, but most share a similar downward sloping channel. Some…like ABX – are testing their upper breakout points. Prices could either top here and turn back lower or breakout (like AU). I can make a case for either. Friday’s employment report could push prices either way. I’m leaning towards a top this week in gold and miners. Perhaps next week in silver.
So I’m leaning towards a top this week in gold and miners. Perhaps next week in silver. Time will tell…volume and closing price are king.