We may see one more push higher in gold to test the $1350 to $1370 area. That may correspond with a decline in the general stock market and oil prices.

I’ve been looking for oil to dip back down towards the $42.00 region in February or March. Progressive closes below $50.00 would reinforce that outlook.

The potential bull flags mentioned in metals and miners need to break higher relatively quickly, or the pattern will lose its effectiveness. It’s been my experience that the best flag patterns last about a week or so.


-GOLD- Prices tested the $1310 level and dipped down to $1306.40 before bouncing. April futures finished the day above $1313. If this is a bull flag, as I suspect, then prices need to start moving higher quickly. Progressive closes below the 10-day EMA would support a top.

-SILVER- Prices are testing the 20-day MA.

-GDX- Prices finished precisely at the 10-day EMA. If this is a bull flag, then it needs to break higher within the next few trading days, or it will lose its validity.

-GDXJ- Junior miners fared worse than their senior counterpart. Prices finished below the 10-day EMA. Closing even lower again tomorrow would score the second close below the 10-day and support a top.

-SPY- Prices slipped back below the 200-day MA after testing it earlier this week. We’ve had a pretty good run off the December low, and I decided to exit my SSO with a small gain. The political landscape is uncertain at best. Besides, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a retest of the December low in February or March. It’s not a bad idea to raise cash when things are uncertain.

-WTIC- For some time I’ve been looking for oil to drop back and test the $42.00 zone. I will feel better about that call if/when oil closes progressively below $50.00. A slump in oil may correspond a declining stock market. Those two factors could give gold the fuel required to test the $1350-$1370 area.

The new member app is coming along nicely. I’m testing it on my device now. I think members that use applications will enjoy it. Of course, we have a few bugs to work out before we launch.

Until tomorrow – enjoy your evening.