Today marks the sixth trading day from last Monday’s recognition day in miners. Gold and Silver have dropped a little more, and I’m expecting an interim low by Thursday. However, it will likely just be a bounce lasting 1-2 weeks before another drop. Playing the rebound may be difficult, and I’m not sure it’s worth it.
The odds that the intermediate (6-Month) cycle topped in miners is around 80%. Prices rallied just 7-weeks from the December low. That would produce a left translated cycle, implying the December lows in miners will be either tested or broken. A better long-term buying opportunity should arrive in May or June.
Oil closed three consecutive days below the 10-day EMA. A fourth consecutive close would imply a breakdown and subsequent shorting opportunity. Prices are rallying back above the 10-day EMA ($53.50) as I write. However, if this rally fades, I may attempt a short if prices close below $53.50; I would prefer a close below $53.20. I’ll update if prices rollover.