Miners rallied nicely yesterday, further endorsing interim lows. However, gold and silver are yet to establish proper swings and the potential for a decline after the FED meeting remains. In the Weekend Newsletter, I noted how gold and silver had a tendency to bottom shortly after the rate hike.
The odds for a rate hike have risen to 95%. If I recall, they were sitting around 22% the last week of February. The previous rate hikes were well anticipated. It is unclear how prices will react to the abrupt shift in expectations. For that reason, I’m content holding my oil positions and waiting for a better setup in precious metals.
-GOLD- Miners formed swing lows, but gold prices have to close above $1,210 for me to confidently call a daily cycle low.
-SILVER- Silver prices would have to close above the black candle high of $17.16 to form a proper swing low and confirm a daily cycle bottom.
-SOS- There were Selling-On-Strenght numbers for GDXJ and GDX yesterday. Data provided by the WSJ.
Lastly, the volatility index for GLD reached a record low yesterday. The data is limited, so it’s difficult to arrive at a definitive outcome. However, the previous readings of 12 or below led to weaker prices. It could be nothing, but I wanted to point it out.