US Retail Gold Sales at Record Lows

 

In 1986 the US mint began producing gold eagles. Below are the total gold ounces sold each year. In 2006, they began striking 1oz gold buffalo coins in addition to standard eagles. The numbers starting in 2006 reflects eagles and buffalo mintages combined. These numbers are from the US mint website and Wikipedia. I did notice some inconsistencies, so I can’t guarantee their accuracy.

YEAR      OUNCES
1986 –  1,787,750
1987 –  1,253,000
1988 –    560,000
1989 –    503,500
1990 –    457,450
1991 –     253,000
1992 –    385,800
1993 –    514,000
1994 –    310,000
1995 –    297,750
1996 –    275,000
1997 –     771,250
1998 –  1,839,500
1999 –  2,055,500 (Y2K scare)
2000 –    164,500 (Y2K bust, sales plummeted)
2001 –     325,000
2002 –     315,000
2003 –     352,000
2004 –    536,000
2005 –    295,000
2006 –    598,000 (Buffalo Coins indroduced)
2007 –     334,500
2008 –  1,050,000
2009 –  1,635,000
2010 –   1,429,500
2011 –    1,250,000
2012 –     853,000
2013 –    1,055,500
2014 –     705,000
2015 –   1,022,000
2016 –   1,204,500
2017 –     402,000
2018 –     367,000
2019 –     210,500 (as of December 8th, 2019)

In 1986 and 1987, demand was high, as gold was once again available to ordinary people.

Sales flattened throughout the 1990s, while gold was in a prolonged bear market.

In the late 1990s, sales jumped as the stock market peaked and over Y2K fears. Sales plummeted in 2000 when Y2K was a flop.

Production increased throughout the 2000s and exceeded 1-million ounces 4-years in a row (2008, 2009, 2010, 2011).

Sales spiked again in 2015 and 2016 before plummeting to current levels.

As of December 8th, 2019, there have been just 150,500 gold eagles and 60,000 gold buffalos minted for a total of 210,500 ounces.

Record low investor interest typically signals a significant turning point.

The data is limited, but it seems like record lows in sales is followed by record highs roughly 8 to 9-years later. Assuming 2019 is the record low – we could see record highs in production by 2027 or 2028.

I imagine that before this bull market ends, sales will once again surpass 2-million ounces as they did in 1999 when fear crested.