Forming a top can be quite the process, some cycles seem to drag out as Bulls and Bears fight for control. This cycle has topped, but there are still late comers (bulls) trying to buy, and volume is receding with each rally. Prices will trend lower over the next several weeks and are likely […]
Continue Reading →In the weekend newsletter, I assigned a 20% chance that the 8-year cycle low has not yet bottomed and that precious metals will make new lows later this year. We are now being presented with an opportunity for those odds to increase considerably if the US Dollar makes a significant reversal here. Combine this with […]
Continue Reading →I rarely mention the COT (commitment of traders) positions in my reports but felt it necessary to highlight recent developments. In the world of commodity trading, the commercial hedgers are viewed as the “Big Players” or the “Smart Money”, as a rule, it’s best to align your trading strategy with their purview. The commercial short […]
Continue Reading →Gold aborted the head and shoulder pattern and made new cycle highs Friday. This development severely dampens the chances of new lows in gold and silver as previously forecast. I would say the odds support an 80% chance that the 8-year cycle in metals bottomed, and a new bull market has begun. However, buying now […]
Continue Reading →The Fed held steady today and didn’t change their forecast in a dramatic way; Gold dropped slightly but was overall unchanged. Their next meeting will be in June; odds support a 20% chance of a rate hike at that time. The Bank of Japan meets tomorrow and will make an announcement regarding monetary policy; their […]
Continue Reading →I learned a long time ago that pride and arrogance prevent profits. Consequently, I would much rather make money and preserve capital than always be correct. Experience has also taught me that when my analysis is challenged at every turn, then the trend has possibly changed. And therefore, I need to stop fighting it. We […]
Continue Reading →Prices made an outside reversal candle today (higher high and lower low than the previous session) while also managing to close below yesterday’s low. This development is an excellent opportunity for prices to begin dropping sharply, and a close below the 10-day moving average tomorrow will imply the rally is most assuredly fading, and that […]
Continue Reading →A while back I used APPL stock, as an illustration, and how the Steve Jobs movie may have marked a significant cycle top. Our services are precious metal focused, but we received several requests to keep members up to date regarding this potential shorting opportunity. I don’t like shorting a stock with a P/E ratio […]
Continue Reading →Investors have the tendency to get distracted by the daily market movements and short-term noise. Occasionally, I like to step back and evaluate things from a big picture perspective in an attempt to keep myself grounded. Last week I covered the potential of a $500 silver target, now I’d like to look at potential debt […]
Continue Reading →During the last cycle top, silver peaked long after gold topped and made somewhat of an angled ascent. Prices touched the trendline three times before terminating. The current topping process could be following a similar pattern with the third and final touch arriving today. If that’s indeed what’s happening, then I would prefer to see […]
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