Category: Updates

GDX “SHOTGUN” OPTIONS PLAY

Thu, 1 Nov 2018

  I bought some options in GDX to cover the various bullish/bearish situations. Very small positions. Bearish 1) I bought November 16th, 2018 GDX puts at the $18.00 strike just in case this turns out to be a 1-3 day bounce before prices collapse to new lows (see Bull Trap update). Price $.06 cents. Bearish […]

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AFTERNOON UPDATE 12:45 PM

Thu, 1 Nov 2018

  I’ll be glad when the elections are over. The manic price swings and wild volatility have made short-term trading virtually impossible. It’s easy to get lost in the day-to-day price swings…so let’s step back and look at what we know. We know that miners opened a large prices gap this morning. We know that […]

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GDX UPDATE (BULL TRAP?)

Thu, 1 Nov 2018

  Here are some examples of what I think may be happening. In 2016 miners topped (blue arrows) and declined to test the consolidation trendline. From the trendline test, prices bounced 1-3 days (sometimes convincingly) before a full-blown collapse. Today – Prices tested the consolidation trendline. Is this the 1-3 day bounce before a full-blown […]

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MORNING NOTE 9:25 AM

Thu, 1 Nov 2018

  Metals are up, and the dollar is slipping. On Tuesday I mentioned the dollar was moving in 10-trading day increments (+/- 1-day) before correcting. Well, it looks like the dollar peaked yesterday (day 11) and prices are now correcting. I don’t know if this is just a 3-5 day pullback or the onset of […]

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GOLD UPDATE

Wed, 31 Oct 2018

  With today’s price action I can say with about 90% confidence that gold peaked October 26th at $1246. The question now is how far will prices drop and when can we expect the next tradable bottom. Over the last 6-years, gold peaked in October (sometimes early November) and bottomed in December (once in November). […]

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MORNING UPDATE 11:40 AM

Wed, 31 Oct 2018

  -GDX- The gap was filled, and prices are testing the cycle trendline. Again, I don’t see a real urgency to sell metals and miners here despite broken support. I’m not sure what that means just yet, perhaps prices are looking to bounce. -SPY- I think prices may have bottomed on Monday, especially if SPY […]

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MORNING NOTE 8:55 AM

Wed, 31 Oct 2018

  The stock market is moving higher, and metals are trading lower. Gold (December) reached $1216.10 this morning and prices are trading around the $1218 level. Precious metals dipped below significant levels, but we never saw expedited selling. Silver (Currently $14.34), is below the cycle trendline, but nobody’s panicking. Things could change later, but at […]

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AFTERNOON UPDATE 3:15 PM

Tue, 30 Oct 2018

  It’s been pretty quiet this afternoon. Gold (December) is hanging out around the $1225 level, and silver is trading at $14.47. Miners are nearing support at their October gaps and cycle trendlines. I think prices will head lower in November – the question is will we see a rebound first or will prices breakdown […]

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MORNING UPDATE

Tue, 30 Oct 2018

  We saw wild swings in the stock market yesterday. Prices reached 259.85, just a few ticks away from the 259 ABC measured target. The S&P 500 cash index formed an outside reversal day. Meaning prices exceeded both the high and the low of the previous session. That type of behavior is often seen near […]

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QUICK SILVER UPDATE

Mon, 29 Oct 2018

  Volatility contracted, and the Bollinger bands narrowed significantly. Typically this precedes a sharp move. After testing $14.78, this morning silver broke lower to test the cycle trendline. I didn’t expect a significant move before the elections, so I was a little surprised. Now it could be nothing and prices may turn higher in a […]

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