Silver closed below $15.80 on a weekly basis and selling could increase if daily prices close below $15.68. The optimal timing window for an 8-year cycle low is in February 2017. Selling should expand in the coming weeks if gold and silver are indeed dropping to new lows.
Prices could consolidate a bit longer during the light Holiday trading. Nevertheless, I’d like to see silver and miners begin to outpace gold to the downside if this is an 8-year cycle decline.
I’ll continue to look for clues that align with my expectations in the coming weeks. I’ll update members as the evidence presents itself. The trend is clearly down, and I’ll continue to look lower for the time being.
-US DOLLAR- The dollar is still consolidating the recent move, and I expect the uptrend to resume. Closing below the 10-day EMA would alter my outlook.
-GOLD WEEKLY- Prices are stretched well below the 10-week EMA and due for a bounce; we may not get one. It would take a weekly close above $1,180 to signal a potential bottom.
-GOLD DAILY- Prices are still consolidating the recent decline. It would take a daily close above the trendline to neutralize the downtrend.
-SILVER WEEKLY- Prices closed marginally below the $15.83 May low and silver is starting to show weakness relative to gold. If we are dropping into an 8-year cycle low, I expect to see accelerated selling in the coming weeks.
-SILVER DAILY- There is still room for a bounce into next week. However, prices closing below the $15.68 low could usher in a new wave of selling.
-HUI- It’s been over a month since we broke below the neckline and I honestly expected prices to be lower by now. If we are dropping into an 8-year cycle low, then we should see increased selling and the positive divergence in MACD broken.
-GDX- We could see prices bounce a little longer before renewed selling. If we are dropping into an 8-year cycle low, the next decline should be striking.
-GDXJ- Prices dropping and then staying below the downtrend line will indicate that accelerated selling has begun.
-SPY- Stocks are still consolidating, and we are seeing light Holiday trading. The rally should continue when normal trading resumes.
-WTIC- A close below $52.50 should lead to a drop into mid-January.
I wish everyone a safe and pleasant Holiday.