The big news today was gold’s inability to rally significantly despite an extremely weak dollar. Today’s action supports a maturing and fatigued gold cycle. However, prices still need to close below $1,283 to form a swing high and then beneath the 10-day EMA to reinforce a top. Silver and Miners made swing highs, completing […]
Continue Reading →Tomorrow is the 20th day of gold’s third common (daily) cycle out of the December low. Prices are just reaching the February high, a sign of weakness. We should get some resolution tomorrow. It is still possible for gold to spike above $1,265 and silver above $18.50 before topping. Expect frequent updates tomorrow. Miners […]
Continue Reading →There were increased signs of topping in Metals and Miners today. Meaningful follow-through to the downside tomorrow will increase the odds of a cycle top to about 90% (currently 60%). I’d also like to see the dollar close back above the 100 level before labeling its cycle low. Once the highs in Gold and […]
Continue Reading →Gold and Silver rallied today, but miners underperformed on a relative basis. The relative weakness sustains our outlook for lower prices this Spring. The dollar should reach a cycle low between now and Monday. Consequently, I’m anticipating the rebound in precious metals to halt once the dollar bottoms. I will monitor for signs of […]
Continue Reading →Tomorrow should signify a key day in metals and miners. Either prices will bottom and begin to bounce/rally, or they could enter the second phase of a selloff. I mention the latter because it’s been 8-trading days since the recognition day and prices usually bottom by now. A close above the previous day’s high […]
Continue Reading →Metals and Miners should be close to reaching an interim daily cycle low, likely this week. How prices react out of that low will establish the near-term outlook (next 3-Months). Miners look particularly close to bottoming. I will use any close above the previous day’s high as a short-term buy signal (for nimble traders). […]
Continue Reading →The correction I’ve been expecting is indeed delayed, but evidence still supports its arrival. Volume in metals and miners should increase as prices breakout to new highs; it hasn’t. Silver makes new intraday highs but then closes lower. And there was selling-in-strength today in GDX. Those factors are supportive of a top and not […]
Continue Reading →Metals and miners may have topped today, but we won’t know until each close beneath their respective 10-day EMA’s. The dollar tested the 100 level again, and it should bounce as precious metals correct. Oil is in a drawn out topping situation similar to that of mid-2015. We may get a decent short play […]
Continue Reading →Gold and silver are bouncing modestly out of the oversold conditions. I was anticipating gold prices to remain below $1,170 and silver below $16.60. Miners, on the other hand, have exceeded my expectations for an oversold rally and could be signaling a bottom. If the miners take out key levels (outlined below), I’ll change […]
Continue Reading →The probabilities favor precious metals sinking further into a major 8-year cycle low. Traditional cycle timing suggests a bottom by the first quarter of 2017, most likely in February. If this is the case, then selling should expand during the next down leg; particularly in silver as it catches up to gold. Silver prices […]
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