Powell’s speech didn’t directly speak to a December rate hike. However, he did address some weakening trends and stated that he doesn’t want to make a policy mistake (to paraphrase). I took that to mean that if the economy begins to roll over, the fed may pause their rate hiking agenda. What a brilliant […]
Continue Reading →Gold (December) reached an overnight low of $1189.50. Prices are bouncing (currently $1199). As long as the $1189.50 low holds, I’ll consider this a routine pullback in a developing uptrend. Below $1189.50 and more downside becomes likely. In the coming hours, gold needs to push its way back above $1200 and $1205 to promote […]
Continue Reading →The pattern following the parabolic 2011 top in silver is similar to what we currently see in Bitcoin. After a parabolic top, there is an initial crash, then a long sideways consolidation before a secondary collapse. -SILVER POST BUBBLE COLLAPSE- Notice how silver bounced off the $26.00 support several times. Each post-bubble rebound […]
Continue Reading →The 2018 price pattern in gold continues to mimic the 2016 Q3/Q4 model. The 2018 design has taken more time, but prices have hit the relevant benchmarks. Virtually everyone is bearish on gold and looking for a decline to $1050 and lower. We heard the same calls back in December 2016. Maybe the bears […]
Continue Reading →The COT improved even more. Commercial combined positions (futures/options) are now net long. Comparatively, as a whole, these numbers are more bullish than they were in November/December 2015. But as we are learning, that doesn’t guarantee a bottom. Nevertheless, the COT numbers are excellent, and at some point, will lead to higher gold prices. […]
Continue Reading →The dollar is extending its losses and gold is attempting another short-term breakout. Prices are at critical near-term resistance (5-minute chart). It would be encouraging to see gold (currently $1187.50) push through and hold the $1190 level into the 4:00 PM close.
Continue Reading →Before we go into the weekend, I wanted to point out two positive developments. Gold formed a bullish engulfing swing low The COT report improved markedly. -GOLD- Prices formed an official swing low as well as a bullish engulfing candle. We could see a little more back and forth early next week, but […]
Continue Reading →I’m getting a lot of emails today from frightened members that are bearish on gold and bullish on the US Dollar. It feels like we are reaching an emotional peak; this often occurs near a bottom. Below is a big picture view of the US Dollar. Prices have broken down below the 200-week MA […]
Continue Reading →Platinum prices are telling a story. Prices peaked 10-years ago at $2,286, and they are currently trading around $830, well below the price of gold. In fact, the Gold/Platinum ratio reached a record high. However, the most bullish aspect, in my opinion, is the COT report. Commercial traders were net short over 60,000 in […]
Continue Reading →Occasionally, I get some grief about the 6-month cycle and how it doesn’t work. Granted, it isn’t perfect…some cycles run short while others extend, but for the most part, it’s a useful timing tool. And if measured correctly, can provide a profitable trading strategy. So what went wrong with this most recent cycle? Frankly, […]
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