Author: admin

MORNING UPDATE 10:33 AM

Fri, 24 Aug 2018

  Powell’s speech didn’t directly speak to a December rate hike. However, he did address some weakening trends and stated that he doesn’t want to make a policy mistake (to paraphrase). I took that to mean that if the economy begins to roll over, the fed may pause their rate hiking agenda. What a brilliant […]

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MORNING NOTE 8:28 AM

Fri, 24 Aug 2018

  Gold (December) reached an overnight low of $1189.50. Prices are bouncing (currently $1199). As long as the $1189.50 low holds, I’ll consider this a routine pullback in a developing uptrend. Below $1189.50 and more downside becomes likely. In the coming hours, gold needs to push its way back above $1200 and $1205 to promote […]

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THURSDAY REPORT 8/23/2018

Thu, 23 Aug 2018

  I believe tomorrow will be a decisive day and much hinges on Fed chairman Powell’s 10:00 AM speech. President Trump has hinted that he wants the Fed to back off on increasing rates. I doubt they will listen, but you never know. Like I said, a September rate hike is already baked in. Everyone […]

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BITCOIN UPDATE

Thu, 23 Aug 2018

  The pattern following the parabolic 2011 top in silver is similar to what we currently see in Bitcoin. After a parabolic top, there is an initial crash, then a long sideways consolidation before a secondary collapse.   -SILVER POST BUBBLE COLLAPSE- Notice how silver bounced off the $26.00 support several times. Each post-bubble rebound […]

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TUESDAY REPORT 8/21/2018

Tue, 21 Aug 2018

  Metals and Miners are inching their way higher. It will take time to determine if this is just an ordinary rebound lasting 1-2 weeks or the start of a more meaningful advance. If you didn’t get a chance, check out the 2016/2018 gold correlation chart. Prices reached their lows 3-trading days ago; we are […]

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THE 2016/2018 PRICE PATTERN LOOKS COMPLETE

Mon, 20 Aug 2018

  The 2018 price pattern in gold continues to mimic the 2016 Q3/Q4 model. The 2018 design has taken more time, but prices have hit the relevant benchmarks. Virtually everyone is bearish on gold and looking for a decline to $1050 and lower. We heard the same calls back in December 2016. Maybe the bears […]

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COT UPDATE

Fri, 17 Aug 2018

  The COT improved even more. Commercial combined positions (futures/options) are now net long. Comparatively, as a whole, these numbers are more bullish than they were in November/December 2015. But as we are learning, that doesn’t guarantee a bottom. Nevertheless, the COT numbers are excellent, and at some point, will lead to higher gold prices. […]

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POTENTIAL LATE-DAY RALLY 3:00 PM

Fri, 17 Aug 2018

  The dollar is extending its losses and gold is attempting another short-term breakout. Prices are at critical near-term resistance (5-minute chart). It would be encouraging to see gold (currently $1187.50) push through and hold the $1190 level into the 4:00 PM close.

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WEEKEND NEWSLETTER 8/4/2018

Sat, 4 Aug 2018

  Commercial gold hedgers reduced their short holdings by nearly 25% last week – a sharp reduction. Their combined positions (futures and options) dropped an astonishing 37%. Speculative shorts remain at or near record highs. For example, managed money is short 153,108 gold contracts. During the July 2017 low, their shorts reached 100,397 contracts (see […]

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