Category: Free Updates

HAWKISH FED 2:09 PM

Wed, 19 Dec 2018

  I think the Fed was more hawkish than most expected. They hiked rates 0.25% and see two additional hikes next year (instead of three). They lowered their neutral target from 3% to 2.8%. Their goal is to run one hike above neutral and stop in 2019. This news should be bearish for precious metals […]

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PRE-FED NOTE 1:20 PM

Wed, 19 Dec 2018

  Miners continue to selloff, and the ABC correction appears complete. Of course, it’s too soon to know for sure. To restore the bullish posture – miners would have to reverse course after the Fed announcement and close above today’s high $21.47. The Fed announces at 2:00, I’ll post again around 2:20 PM (EST).   

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GOLD MINERS UPDATE 11:40 AM

Wed, 19 Dec 2018

  At the moment it looks like miners hit the precise C-wave target cited yesterday and topped. Let’s see what happens after the Fed announces. I said today would be volatile. Juniors reversed hard as well. Let’s see how they finish.

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MORNING UPDATE 10:12 AM

Wed, 19 Dec 2018

The dollar is down, but it hasn’t broken support. Metals and miners are up. I’m still surprised at the sudden rise in miners before the Fed announcement. That is the type of action you expect after a significant decision – not before. It leads me to believe that prices are about to top dramatically or […]

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MINING/GOLD RATIO UPDATE 3:22 PM

Tue, 18 Dec 2018

  The HUI/GLD ratio is approaching critical resistance. Since early 2017 most advances in the mining/gold ratio terminated after spiking briefly above the 200-day MA. The green downtrend line has kept the ratio in check. Will this area defeat prices once again? If history is a guide, we could see the ratio spike over the […]

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MORNING UPDATE 12/18/2018

Tue, 18 Dec 2018

  The next 72-hours are critical. It seems nearly every market is at a significant tipping point. Tomorrow’s Fed decision will either extend or reverse the current trends. Expect increased volatility.   -GOLD- It looks like prices are trying to break higher from the small bull flag. Resistance coordinates between $1258 – $1270. If we […]

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WEEKEND NEWSLETTER 12/02/2018

Sun, 2 Dec 2018

  It looks like commodities, measured by the CRB are descending into multi-year lows. If I’m correct about oil, we should see a significant bottom in the first quarter (Q1) of 2019. Precious metals typically bottom before oil and the CRB. I think gold will bottom in December – January at the latest. The indecision […]

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WEEKEND NEWSLETTER (OIL INSIGHTS) 11/23/2018

Fri, 23 Nov 2018

  There are many calls for a new bear market in stocks; I don’t see it just yet. In my opinion, several pieces of the recession puzzle remain missing. Nevertheless, the bearish talk caused me to go back and reevaluate the charts for clues…and I uncovered an interesting observation in the oil market. Higher oil […]

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WEEKEND NEWSLETTER 11/11/2018

Sun, 11 Nov 2018

  I’m going to start by revisiting the University of Michigan consumer sentiment numbers. There’s a lot to digest in the first chart, but if you study it, I think you’ll see the powerful inverse correlation with gold. Next week should be interesting. Monday and Tuesday will set the tone for the week. I’ll post […]

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CLOSING UPDATE 3:43 PM

Fri, 9 Nov 2018

  Little changed from the previous update. Gold, Silver, and GDXJ all broke their October 31st pivot lows, GDX hasn’t. The setup for a sharp 3-5 day decline remains. However, if it’s going to happen, it should occur relatively soon. Like I said, maybe gold needs to fall below $1200 before we see a significant […]

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