Gold’s COT improved with commercials reducing their short positions by 32,330 contracts. However, it remains moderately bearish at 351,473. The non-commercial (large speculators) in silver increased their net-short position for the third straight week. Again, the last time we saw this was in 2003 (see bullish silver chart). There was mild selling on strength […]
Continue Reading →Prices have held up, and I took initial positions in JNUG and USLV. Bought JNUG at $14.77 with an initial stop at $13.85. Bought USLV at $10.42 with an initial stop at $9.85. Prices didn’t drop deep enough to trigger an official buy signal, so the color codes haven’t changed.
Continue Reading →Overnight gold declined to $1,307.40, and a breakdown below $1300 was nigh. Unfortunately, prices reversed around 2:00 AM and closed the day at $1,317.80. The odds for a bottom forming around the time of the Fed meeting are fading; it’s time to build alternative scenarios. The key levels going forward are $1310 and $1343 […]
Continue Reading →Metals and Miners rolled over on Wednesday, but the ensuing decline was lackluster. I was expecting a substantial breakdown before the weekend. Gold dropped below $1313 on Friday, but it was unable to crack the $1309 zone. To setup a low next week, gold needs to drop below $1300. The probabilities for a March […]
Continue Reading →Gold bounced to $1342 and pushed me to the edge of my comfort zone. Prices reversed Wednesday and exposed a potential clue. I don’t use Elliott Wave analysis often, but I do find specific fractal techniques beneficial. Applying this method, I see the potential for an A = C measured move in gold and […]
Continue Reading →The dollar should rally and peak around the time of the March 21st Fed meeting. However, prices reversed at the 50-day EMA and are exhibiting the initial signs of a top. It could turn out to be nothing, but if the dollar peaked, then gold may have put in a premature bottom. Next weeks […]
Continue Reading →Gold is at a major inflection point and the next few trading days will be critical. Prices are at $1356, and it would take little effort to punch through the January $1365.40 high. The next level to overcome resides at $1,377.50 (the 2016 high). That too is within striking distance. A high volume move […]
Continue Reading →The economic data released at 8:30 drove gold down to $1319. Prices quickly recovered and are trading around $1334 as I write. The dollar rallied on the news, but prices may be starting to rollover. -JNUG- I entered 25% of my previous stake at $14.10.
Continue Reading →Miners continue to look vulnerable, and GDX will likely close below the 20-day EMA. Metals are holding up a little better, but the action isn’t encouraging. To err on the side of caution, I’m taking profit on 25% on my USLV position. -USLV- I’m exiting 25% of my position at $11.86.
Continue Reading →Yesterday’s sharp selloff may have been a fleeting event, we should know later today. Perhaps it was an overly aggressive gap fill, or maybe it was manufactured by a large institution. Whatever the case, as long as metals and miners remain above yesterday’s selloff lows, I’ll look to our early February targets. However, closing […]
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