Commercial gold hedgers reduced their short holdings by nearly 25% last week – a sharp reduction. Their combined positions (futures and options) dropped an astonishing 37%. Speculative shorts remain at or near record highs. For example, managed money is short 153,108 gold contracts. During the July 2017 low, their shorts reached 100,397 contracts (see […]
Continue Reading →Gold was unable to make any headway going into next weeks Fed meeting…not surprising. Nevertheless, multiple factors continue to support a low. Both the weekly RSI and MFI are deeply oversold. The COT numbers are incredibly bullish. More bullish than they were last July when prices rallied $150+ in 8-weeks. Sentiment is bearish and […]
Continue Reading →The persistent 3-month decline in gold cut much deeper than I anticipated. As the cycle extended, gold broke key levels at $1280, and $1238. This renewed calls for a bear market and imminent collapse. I remain firmly bullish on the yellow metal and believe the washout period is over. Member after member reached out […]
Continue Reading →Before we go into the weekend, I wanted to point out two positive developments. Gold formed a bullish engulfing swing low The COT report improved markedly. -GOLD- Prices formed an official swing low as well as a bullish engulfing candle. We could see a little more back and forth early next week, but […]
Continue Reading →I’m getting a lot of emails today from frightened members that are bearish on gold and bullish on the US Dollar. It feels like we are reaching an emotional peak; this often occurs near a bottom. Below is a big picture view of the US Dollar. Prices have broken down below the 200-week MA […]
Continue Reading →Platinum prices are telling a story. Prices peaked 10-years ago at $2,286, and they are currently trading around $830, well below the price of gold. In fact, the Gold/Platinum ratio reached a record high. However, the most bullish aspect, in my opinion, is the COT report. Commercial traders were net short over 60,000 in […]
Continue Reading →Will the 6-Month cycle ever bottom? It seems like the assault will never end, investors (including myself) are beyond their breaking point. I’ve seen this many times, and I can assure you prices will bottom. It’s been 30-weeks, and gold is yet to confirm a low. However, miners remain stable and are just 6% […]
Continue Reading →Occasionally, I get some grief about the 6-month cycle and how it doesn’t work. Granted, it isn’t perfect…some cycles run short while others extend, but for the most part, it’s a useful timing tool. And if measured correctly, can provide a profitable trading strategy. So what went wrong with this most recent cycle? Frankly, […]
Continue Reading →The persistent decline is wearing on investors and one-by-one they have lost hope and are beginning to capitulate. We could see more volatility, but there is a decent chance prices bottom within the next 48-hours. The final decline into the prior 6-month low lasted 10-trading days. We are nine days into the current downturn, […]
Continue Reading →It’s difficult not to seek answers when prices are going against you. Bearish articles calling for $700 gold, a major breakdown and the bearish death-cross attract nervous investors. These are the emotions that create significant bottoms/tops. In my opinion, prices are merely stretching within an overly aggressive 6-month cycle decline, likely orchestrated by big […]
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