Recession fears are spiking. The 10-year versus 2-year yields reached parity (temporarily inverted) for the first time since 2007. An inverted yield curve almost always precedes a recession. However, it’s usually early – sometimes a year passes before the recession officially commences. The panic into bonds drove 30-year rates to record lows. The nosedive […]
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GOLD UPDATE AUGUST 13, 2019
Gold probed the upper limit of the resistance band between $1525 – $1550 reaching $1546.10 this morning before falling apart. Futures collapsed to $1488.90 by 10 AM and prices are bouncing. Yesterday’s breakout above $1525, followed by today’s dynamic reversal supports an interim top. Silver reached $17.49 before collapsing to $16.51 intraday. The short-term […]
Continue Reading →AFTERNOON UPDATE 3:30 PM
Gold futures broke higher from the consolidation pattern reaching $1531.50 intraday (currently $1523). Gold miners (GDX) are down 1.11% as I write and making fresh intraday lows. The non-confirmation is a warning. Gold would have to extend above $1535 to maintain today’s short-term breakout. Slipping back below $1510 would signal a potential top.
Continue Reading →GOLD REACHED SIGNIFICANT RESISTANCE
Wednesday’s surge in gold above $1500 was fueled by stock market fears and a capitulating bond market. The 10-year treasury yield crashed to 1.59% on Wednesday, and an interim low is likely. TREASURY YIELDS CAPITULATE: The move below 1.95% in 10-year treasury yields triggered multiple capitulation signals. The selloff reached a panic extreme […]
Continue Reading →GOLD SETS ITS SIGHTS ON $1500
The June breakout above $1370 signaled a new bull market in gold. The initial surge took gold to $1442.90 before prices entered a running consolidation. A “running consolidation” has an upward bias due to enthusiastic buying versus a traditional downward sloping correction. Monday’s close above $1470 registered a short-term breakout, and this wave higher […]
Continue Reading →THURSDAY REPORT AUGUST 1, 2019
What a wild day. After reaching $1412 this morning, gold prices began to bounce. Prices were near $1430 around 1:30 when the Trump administration announced additional tariffs of China starting in September. The stock market reversed suddenly and gold jumped an additional $25.00 before the 4:00 PM close. It’s impossible to predict these events, […]
Continue Reading →WEEKEND NEWSLETTER JULY 21, 2019
Ray Dalio released an excellent article last week concerning longer-term investment themes and paradigm shifts. He breaks down each decade, starting with the 1920s and the various economic factors that shaped capital flows. In a nutshell, each decade has its own investment theme. For example, from 2010 until now, the stock market has been […]
Continue Reading →THURSDAY REPORT JULY 18, 2019
Gold broke free from the triangle consolidation, and silver exceeded the January/February double top. There’s little doubting a new bull market in gold. To establish a bull market in silver, I’d like to see prices exceed the 2018 high ($17.70). Miners responded positively, and each is near or exceeded their June measuring gap targets. […]
Continue Reading →MORNING UPDATE 11:48 AM
-GDX- Miners appear to be breaking higher as spot gold is testing the upper triangle boundary near $1425. -GOLD 4-HOUR CHART- Miners and silver are leading gold higher. To confirm the next up leg in metals, gold needs to close decisively above $1425 and then take out the June $1442.90 high. Failure to make […]
Continue Reading →TUESDAY REPORT JULY 16, 2019
The consolidation in gold appears to be taking the form of a triangle pattern. Closing above $1425 would recommend an upside breakout. Downside support arrives between $1385 and $1390. Silver exceeded its June high and prices are showing subtle signs of life. For the last 8-years, silver has peaked in the first half of […]
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