Category: Weekend Newsletters


Sun, 27 Jan 2019

  Next week is shaping up to be pivotal. Wednesday’s FOMC announcement will set the tone. Market participants will be looking for guidance concerning interest rates and balance sheet reductions. From a cyclical and technical perspective, metals and miners are in the ideal position to form intermediate tops next week. Key resistance in gold arrives […]

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Sun, 20 Jan 2019

  Big picture time for gold. It’s easy to get lost in the daily and weekly gyrations and lose sight of the broader perspective. Gold enjoyed a healthy uptrend for over a decade before peaking in 2011 and entering a bear market. Prices began a sideways chop starting in 2013, and trading has been difficult. […]

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Sun, 23 Dec 2018

  To know where we are in the markets, first, we need to understand where we are in the broader economic landscape. The US stock market is weaker than I anticipated going into year-end. I felt stocks would reach new highs after an October slump. Instead, they have fallen to new lows. Bearishness abounds, and […]

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Sun, 2 Dec 2018

  It looks like commodities, measured by the CRB are descending into multi-year lows. If I’m correct about oil, we should see a significant bottom in the first quarter (Q1) of 2019. Precious metals typically bottom before oil and the CRB. I think gold will bottom in December – January at the latest. The indecision […]

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Fri, 23 Nov 2018

  There are many calls for a new bear market in stocks; I don’t see it just yet. In my opinion, several pieces of the recession puzzle remain missing. Nevertheless, the bearish talk caused me to go back and reevaluate the charts for clues…and I uncovered an interesting observation in the oil market. Higher oil […]

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Sun, 11 Nov 2018

  I’m going to start by revisiting the University of Michigan consumer sentiment numbers. There’s a lot to digest in the first chart, but if you study it, I think you’ll see the powerful inverse correlation with gold. Next week should be interesting. Monday and Tuesday will set the tone for the week. I’ll post […]

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Sun, 4 Nov 2018

  We made it to the midterm elections. It will be nice when they’re finally behind us. Big money and businesses hate uncertainty. They want to know what the business and tax environment will be like in the coming years. Politicians make that difficult. They quarrel back and forth vowing to undo whatever the prior […]

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Sun, 28 Oct 2018

  This is starting to feel like a repeat of the 2016 elections, financially speaking. Nervous capital exited the stock market in September/October 2016 before the elections. Gold rebounded in October 2016 as a safe-haven. Trump won, fear collapsed, and money rushed back into stocks and out of gold. We see a similar setup this […]

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Sun, 21 Oct 2018

  The November 6th elections will influence investment decisions, and money flows for the next several months. There are two potential “extreme outcomes” that would potentially cause the greatest shift in financial assets. Extreme outcome 1: We see a blue wave, and Democrats gain control of both the House and the Senate. Probably bad for […]

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Sat, 6 Oct 2018

  After a 6-month advance, it looks like the stock market may be rolling over into an intermediate decline. Downside follow-through next week will confirm. Algo-trading makes up approximately 90% of daily trading activity. Occasionally, when all the stars align, these systems flood the market with sell orders and trigger a 1-3 day flash crash. […]

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