Category: Weekend Newsletters


Fri, 23 Nov 2018

  There are many calls for a new bear market in stocks; I don’t see it just yet. In my opinion, several pieces of the recession puzzle remain missing. Nevertheless, the bearish talk caused me to go back and reevaluate the charts for clues…and I uncovered an interesting observation in the oil market. Higher oil […]

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Sun, 11 Nov 2018

  I’m going to start by revisiting the University of Michigan consumer sentiment numbers. There’s a lot to digest in the first chart, but if you study it, I think you’ll see the powerful inverse correlation with gold. Next week should be interesting. Monday and Tuesday will set the tone for the week. I’ll post […]

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Sun, 4 Nov 2018

  We made it to the midterm elections. It will be nice when they’re finally behind us. Big money and businesses hate uncertainty. They want to know what the business and tax environment will be like in the coming years. Politicians make that difficult. They quarrel back and forth vowing to undo whatever the prior […]

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Sun, 28 Oct 2018

  This is starting to feel like a repeat of the 2016 elections, financially speaking. Nervous capital exited the stock market in September/October 2016 before the elections. Gold rebounded in October 2016 as a safe-haven. Trump won, fear collapsed, and money rushed back into stocks and out of gold. We see a similar setup this […]

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Sun, 21 Oct 2018

  The November 6th elections will influence investment decisions, and money flows for the next several months. There are two potential “extreme outcomes” that would potentially cause the greatest shift in financial assets. Extreme outcome 1: We see a blue wave, and Democrats gain control of both the House and the Senate. Probably bad for […]

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Sat, 6 Oct 2018

  After a 6-month advance, it looks like the stock market may be rolling over into an intermediate decline. Downside follow-through next week will confirm. Algo-trading makes up approximately 90% of daily trading activity. Occasionally, when all the stars align, these systems flood the market with sell orders and trigger a 1-3 day flash crash. […]

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Sat, 8 Sep 2018

  Several markets could be at significant turning points. The stock market (SPY) is pulling back, and I see the potential for a bull trap top and an intermediate-term decline. If established, that could trigger an accelerated breakdown similar to February if key levels begin to fail. Supporting this breakdown potential is the head and […]

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Sun, 2 Sep 2018

  For some time I’ve expected 2018 to be gold’s breakout year. Although it is still possible, the odds have declined severely. So what happened? Well, many factors influence the price of gold – interest rates, inflation expectations, currencies wars, monetary policy, stock markets trends, investment demand and consumer sentiment to name a few. Right […]

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Sun, 26 Aug 2018

  Gold is at a pivotal point. Prices dropped $200 since April’s botched breakout attempt. We have a failed cycle and prices collapsed below support at $1200. The moving averages are down and trending lower. The charts – well are frankly bearish. Gold needs to mount a miraculous turnaround to revive the bullish potential. Factors […]

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Sat, 4 Aug 2018

  Commercial gold hedgers reduced their short holdings by nearly 25% last week – a sharp reduction. Their combined positions (futures and options) dropped an astonishing 37%. Speculative shorts remain at or near record highs. For example, managed money is short 153,108 gold contracts. During the July 2017 low, their shorts reached 100,397 contracts (see […]

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